ProbSevere Overdone in WV – 2308Z

2308Z ProbSevere Product.  Was at 78% at this scan.
2308Z ProbSevere Product. Was at 78% at this scan.

Convection through the day in West Virginia has been strong, perhaps marginally severe at times but no reports have yet been received.  However, I noticed the probsevere tool began to struggle once this convection congealed into a linear segment.  The highest probs appear to be driven by a falsely high MESH value, which was at 1.41 inches at this time.  There was no satellite data going into the probsevere tool at this time.  Looking at reflectivity data, the bulk of the reflectivity (60+ dBz echoes) were below the freezing level, so I’m not quite sure why the MESH was so high.  But this tool was definitely overdone in this instance.

-Deitsch

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