While awaiting convection in my CWA (St. Louis), I used the vLAPS model to diagnose the potential for pre-frontal convection across my CWA.  These images depict the model-derived reflectivity versus the observed radar at 21Z Monday May 12th.  The model is quite a bit overdone with the convection in the warm sector in Missouri (although perhaps being on the edge of the model domain may be affecting this to some extent…).

-Deitsch