Southwesterly winds are noted to be advecting dryer air into the southern portions of western New York.  Minimums of SB and ML CAPE are noted with this air mass as it moves into the area.  The only healthy storm so far in western New York was located on the northern side of this air mass, and every echo closer to this air mass has struggled to develop.  Convection is likely only to thrive if it develops on the moisture gradients noted in the previous mesoscale discussion and moves away from the dry air,  at least until better upper level forcing arrives.

– McCormick