The 00Z ALY sounding did indicate SBCAPE on the order of 1007 J/KG, but CINH was already increasing to around 202 J/KG, so it is likely that most storms will be elevated in nature above a low level inversion and rooted from 850mb on up. Moderate westerly wind shear profiles 25-35 kts are combining with MUCAPE values near 1800 J/KG which enough for storm clusters to continue in advance of a approaching shortwave. Main threat should be large hail, though localized downbursts are possible with any storms that can get rooted more into the boundary layer.

The probability of severe hail and HDCA algorithms all underestimated hail size quite a bit when ping pong (1.5″ diameter) hail fell in Hamilton Co NY.  The MESH was the only parameter that recorded near 1.5″ diameter half potential.

About 20 mins later, another ping pong hail report came in from Hamilton Co and the MESH again outshined the HDSA algorithm which only showed only regular hail(HA).

Storms should maintain for the next several hours, before waning with boundary layer cooling continue to increase and instability aloft weakening somewhat.