Slight Risk for portions of the upper Ohio Valley and the northeast, with the highest probabilities of severe centered over Ohio.  The upper level trough continues slowly eastward, and at least one notable wave is progged to swing around the base.  Low to moderate instability is expected as a surface cold front moves through the area.  Expect convection to develop by early afternoon, and peak in severe potential during the late afternoon and early evening hours, after which it should tail off in severity.  Expecting marginally severe hail (up to 1.5″) and possible wind damage up to 65 mph.

Likely CWAs:  Wilmington OH, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh

Greg Stumpf, Week 3 Coordinator