Mesoscale Discussion 21 UTC 05/15/13 Central/North Texas and Southern Oklahoma

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase 21-02z across north and central Texas as daytime heating should erode capping. Think isolated to scattered supercells will develop near or just east of the dryline where best instability (2000-3000 J/kg) and increasing shear (0-6 km 30-55 kt).  Very large hail would be the main hazard with supercells, thought damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur as well. Highest storm coverage will most likely be across western north Texas and Oklahoma where capping is weakest closer to the mid/upper low.  The best chance for supercells with the biggest hail is expected over northwest Texas where best instability and shear are forecast. Across Oklahoma, weak capping and limited heating from ongoing convection are expected to limit the overall severe potential, though a stray damaging wind or hail report remain possible, mainly through 02z. With low LCLs and locally enhanced 0-1 km SRH values 150 to 200 m2/s2, short lived weak tornadoes are possible, mainly over central and eastern Oklahoma through 01z. Additional severe storms may develop farther south near or east of the dryline, across central and south Texas though stronger capping is expected to reduce the number of storms.  The supercells may evolve into mini squall lines/MCS clusters 01-03z as they move southeast and are expected to slowly weaken. However, damaging wind and large hail may the main hazards with any MCS.

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