18Z LAPS vs Reality

The 18Z LAPS 4-hour forecast of sfc layer maximum reflectivity showed the development of a large, supercellular storm near the Gray /  Montague border.

18zlaps_f04

Here is the actual reflectivity image from 2204Z.

2204_Z

Golfball- to baseball-sized hail has been reported with this storm.

Picca

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