Isolated to scattered unorganized thunderstorms currently over beautiful West Texas will likely increase in coverage through the afternoon and may congeal into one or more MCS by 00z as the storms move east into increasing 0-6 km bulk shear (from 30-40 kt) depected by the RAP13 and increasing MLCAPE (800-1500 J/kg) suggested by LAPS.  The image below shows the LAPS surface-based CAPE…depicting the area of highest instability at present where storms will be favored to develop.

  The 18 UTC OUNWRF model reflectivity depicts the expected scenario.  The first image shows the model composite reflectivity forecast at 2030Z, and the second is for 0200 Z, showing the change in mode from multicells to MCS.  The main hazards will most likely transition from isolated large hail reports to more damaging wind reports as the storms become better organized.  The MCS may weaken with the loss of daytime heating and become more elevated after 02z with a diminishing wind and hail threat.