Hail Lead Time from Cloud Top Cooling Products

Posted in Live Blogs on by Kristin Calhoun.

As several storms developed in the DDC forecast area, and very slowly reached maturity (and severe intensity), the Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) product provided a significant amount of lead time.

CTC at 2202Z, showing strong indications in Lane, Clark, and Haskell Counties.
CTC at 2202Z, showing strong indications in Lane, Clark, and Haskell Counties.

At 2202Z, three areas showed strong (20+) indications on the CTC product. The two areas in Lane and Clark Counties went on to produce severe thunderstorms. However, the smaller area in Haskell County did not end up with severe hail reports. All three of these CTC areas continued for several consecutive time steps.

CTC at 2232Z. A new area has developed in Ness County.
CTC at 2232Z. A new area has developed in Ness County.

An hour and a half later, a new area of strong CTC developed in Ness County. This area also persisted for several time steps, and preceded severe thunderstorm development as the storm moved into Trego and Ellis Counties. The area near Haskell County was associated with the one storm that did not become severe, while the Clark County CTC area was associated with the severe storm moving out of Ford County.

With the exception of the sub-severe Haskell County storm, the other three CTC indications were associated with future severe hail reports.

Ness County Storm. CTC first indicated strong values at 2202Z. Our warning was issued at 2225Z. The first 1" hail report occurred at 2222Z, and the first 1.75" hail report occurrd at 2233Z.
Ness County Storm. CTC first indicated strong values at 2202Z. Our warning was issued at 2225Z. The first 1″ hail report occurred at 2222Z, and the first 1.75″ hail report occurrd at 2233Z.
Ford/Clark County Storm. CTC first indicated strong values at 2202Z. Our warning was issued at 2224Z, and the first severe hail report (1.75") came in at 2325Z.
Ford/Clark County Storm. CTC first indicated strong values at 2202Z. Our warning was issued at 2224Z, and the first severe hail report (1.75″) came in at 2325Z.
Ness/Trego/Ellis County Storm. CTC first indicated strong values at 2232Z. Our warning was issued at 2331Z, and the first severe report (1.00") was received at 0010Z.
Ness/Trego/Ellis County Storm. CTC first indicated strong values at 2232Z. Our warning was issued at 2331Z, and the first severe report (1.00″) was received at 0010Z.

–Hatzos

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