EWP STATUS FOR 7 MAY 2013: 1 – 9 PM SHIFT

On Tuesday, forecast parameters look favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms in west Texas.  Strong directional shear will combine with weak to moderate instability to support a risk for elevated supercells.   Given the lack of quality moisture, the tornado threat should be minimal.  However, steep lapse rates and adequate moisture should result in a  large hail threat.   Additionally, a significant damaging wind threat may develop as forecast thermodynamic profiles show the classic “inverted V” shape.

Despite limited upper-level forcing, severe thunderstorms should develop by mid-afternoon.  The combination of upslope flow with seasonably-strong diabatic heating should result in the elimination of the cap by mid-afternoon.  Storms will likely organize into supercells by mid-evening, with a transition to mesoscale convective system possible later on.   However, forcing from an approaching upper-tropospheric shortwave trough will be limited before 06Z, so storms may be diurnally driven.
CWAs Likely to See Operations: Amarillo and Lubbock

-G. Garfield, Week 1 Coordinator