EWP STATUS FOR 14 JUNE 2012: 1-9 p.m. SHIFT

On Thursday, we will begin our shift at 1 p.m.  The operational models depict a strong, negatively-tilted shortwave trough entering the Upper Midwest by early afternoon.  The associated strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability will support supercells/organized convection in Minnesota and Wisconsin during the afternoon/evening hours.   Given moderate low-level shear and low LCLs, a tornado threat may emerge as well.  However, this may be tempered by a relatively quick transition to the linear convective mode, owing to the strong forcing associated with the ejecting upper trough.  Current thinking is that the Duluth, Minneapolis, and LaCrosse county warning areas are the most likely candidates for severe operations.

– G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator