We have observed the cell warned in our wdm #1 post is showing a nice bow. Warning polygon issued below.

Looking at 3DVAR 1km wind field. Again we are seeing 50-55kt winds at 2220 UTC in Phillips county AR just west of the MS river.  Between this and the sharp reflectivity gradient and strong base velocity (even from KLZK more than 60nm away), feel good about mentioning a 70mph wind bag.

Also saw a near 60dBZ echo at -20C in Quitman county, MS and 23 m/s max updraft in Coahoma county, MS at 2216 UTC and 2225 UTC.

Cold pool and high CAPE allowing for MCS to accelerate and turning a little more to the south into JAN CWA. Flow aloft a little more NWly in this area but shear should be weaker as well. Main threat should be damaging wind.

SNELSON/TY