CI products were able to correctly depict a small hail producing t-storm about 1.5 hours ahead of time.

In the first image below, the UAH CI showed a 53 index (upper left) indicating significant cloud growth at 1732Z.

The next image below shows CIMSS CI of -7 to -8 K/15 min at 1745Z (lower left) which is typical of weak storms based on recent studies.

The next image below at 1901Z depicts the same storm, 1.5 hrs later when it first reaches 60 dbz in KEPZ comp reflectivity (upper right) and 77-80 DVIL (lower right).  At this point the storm is likely producing small hail.

Another point to take away from this case is that for this environment, it takes about an index of 50 to 60 UAH CI to produce strong storms.

AMS

Here are a couple of FSI images of the storm that is still in Mexico.  Definitely a supercell, worthy of a SVR for large hail.  TOR?  Perhaps.  But alas, it is not in the U.S.

Greg Stumpf, EWP2012 Week #1 Coordinator

Storm over northern Mexico…west of Rio Grande City…is likely severe.  MESH is indicating 2 inch hail.  1-5 km helicity has been increasing over past 35 mins.  Also storm is 65 dBZ at minus -20 degC.  Barns/Hovis

At 1732z…UAH-CI showed a signal strength in excess of 90 and the UW-CTC showed cloud top cooling of -9 degC.   Storm did develop in the area where the two values were seen around 1745z and continued thru 1845z.  Feel this is a success for both methods.  Barnes/Hovis

Severe storm over northern Starr county increasing in intensity.  This can be seen in the maximum updraft product.  In addition…Max surface vorticity and Updraft Helicity associated with this storm have been increasing with time.  Vorticity (up to 3 km & 3-7 km)(not shown) are also increasing.  SRM still not showing any rotation…but will continue to monitor storm.  Barnes/Hovis

UAH CI shows new convection developing over eastern Dona Ana county and expect continued development through 1930Z.  EM and other decision makers should continue to monitor this area for possible warnings and statement.

The first image below shows cloud top cooling rates at 1715Z.  Note the values of almost -35 K in the light blue over west central TX.    The second image below of IR satellite imagery at 1745Z, depicts the beginning phases of strong convection in the same region as the cloud top cooling noted 30 min before strong convection initiated.  The CIMSS cloud top cooling product correctly predicted the formation of a  complex of strong storms that later became severe during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

RB/AMS