We’re currently monitoring the rapidly inland moving see breeze front over NE Florida with enhanced TCU present along the convergence zone, whereas the west coast see breeze has trouble to move inland within dominant easterly wind regime. Both convergence zones enter an area over N-C Florida where slightly lower dewpoints (lower to mid 60s) are present. With ongoing diabatic heating, cap continues to weaken or has already vanished with isolated initiation possible over N-C Florida in the following hours but ongoing large-scale weak subsidence seems to delay initiation a bit. HRRR quite aggressive with initiation mainly along the western sea breeze front with RUC also showing sporadic storms over N-C Florida. Overall set-up is not impressive and favors only the development of a few thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE and weak shear environment may result in a few strong and slow moving storms.

Neither CI nor Cld top cooling products showing robust signs for initiation … mainly over C Florida. Both products however show more vivid activity offshore over the Atlantic, where mid-levels remain a bit cooler.

Helge