Forecasters are beginning the day in NC/SC region, specifically starting in the Raleigh and Wilmington CWA’s. Storms were already going as we initialized in the area, but are expected to grow in strength and coverage over the next couple of hours.   All the products and algorithms seem to working well over the region (only lacking total lightning coverage by an LMA, though this region may have coverage in future years!).  Multiple storms have already been flagged by the UW-CIMSS Cloud-top-cooling product with min values as low as -26 to -27C and warnings may be issued shortly by the forecasters as they get settled in the new operations/CWAs.

We’re still watching the other SPC slight risk area for later this afternoon and early evening.  It is likely we will make a switch (for at least one of the teams) to the central plains (likely Hastings/Omaha CWAs) if we start to see a CI signal.  Like yesterday the high-res models seem to want to initiate convection along the front by 2100 UTC, though moisture continues to be an issue over the region with dewpoints in NE CO in the upper 30s to mid 40’s increasing to only the mid 50’s over central KS/NE.   Unlike yesterday over the Dakotas where a thick cirrus shield covered the region, skies are pretty clear over KS with a bit more cloud coverage behind the front in central NE.  If and when storms develop, steep lapse rates and deep layer shear point to the likelihood of supercells with large hail and damaging wind (especially with the large dewpt depressions).

-Kristin Calhoun, Week 3 Coordinator