Another storm is affecting eastern Saratoga County and southern Washington County, NY (prompting a severe thunderstorm warning).  3DVAR storm-top divergence has been a pretty solid predictor with other storms in the region today, and this storm was no exception.  However, this was the first storm to show more than marginal updraft helicity, maxing out at 117 m/s^2 at 2045 UTC.

About 15 minutes later, MRMS MESH reached 1.25″ with a 62% POSH; that has since increased to 72% POSH and 1.5″ MESH.