Another SVR in eastern NY

Another storm is affecting eastern Saratoga County and southern Washington County, NY (prompting a severe thunderstorm warning).  3DVAR storm-top divergence has been a pretty solid predictor with other storms in the region today, and this storm was no exception.  However, this was the first storm to show more than marginal updraft helicity, maxing out at 117 m/s^2 at 2045 UTC.

3DVAR Reflectivity, Updraft Composite, Updraft Helicity, and 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 2050 UTC
3DVAR Reflectivity, Updraft Composite, Updraft Helicity, and 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 2050 UTC

About 15 minutes later, MRMS MESH reached 1.25″ with a 62% POSH; that has since increased to 72% POSH and 1.5″ MESH.