Looks like we are operating in S and SW Texas again.  The upper level flow and shear remains best under the sub-tropical jet, and ample moisture remains in place.  Unfortunately, there is no cap in the south Texas area, and convection is already ongoing, with some embedded severe, in that area.  Shear is adequate for severe, and a small chance of tornadoes.  But there is a lot of current convection owing to the weak cap.  And there is a chance for storms to move out of Old Mexico across the Rio Grande.  Nevertheless, we are going to have one team operate as Brownsville (BRO) and the MRMS and 3DVAR domains will be available to them over that area.  We have a contingency to also add Corpus Christie (CRP) as well if needed.

A second area of convection, with CI just beginning, is over far west Texas and southern New Mexico, as well as adjacent Old Mexico.  Moisture is mre lacking in that area, so the main threat will be microbursts.  We will have our second team operating as the El Paso, TX (EPZ) office and look primarily at the nowcast and CI products only, since this is too far west to include in the MRMS domain.

Here is the SPC DAY1 outlook for comparison:

Greg Stumpf, EWP2012 Week#1 Coordinator