As is typically the case with any first week, this week dealt with a combination of tech problems (raid, awips integration, and server failures). However, these difficulties did not keep our forecasters [Jerilyn Billings (ICT), Scott Blair (TOP), Brian Curran (MAF), Andy Taylor (OUN), Brandon Vincent (RAH)] from providing valuable feedback. This feedback will lead to significant changes to our forecaster schedule and the experimental products as early as week 2.

The first significant change will be to incorporate the WES case developed by Darrel Kingfield (WDTB) into the training on Monday afternoons.  Multiple forecasters felt that getting their ‘hands dirty’ early on would allow them to better integrate the experimental products real-time as the week continues…

The second major change will be to the morning shifts.  The focus of the first half of these shifts have been modified such that the forecasters will be first developing an Area Forecast Discussion (to be posted on this blog) that determines the region of interest for possible severe operations later that afternoon.  After lunch these forecasters will be join the Convection Initiation Desk from the EFP; these forecasters will be narrowing down the region of focus for the CI desk as well.

Multiple products received detailed feedback at our weekly debrief.  A few of these are highlighted below:

OUN-WRF:

*Either a web-based or AWIPS-based dProg/dT type product was desired for the OUN-WRF to help the forecasters view the changes with each successive run.

*Access should be provided WFO’s within the forecast domain.

GOES-R Nearcast:

*Useful for short 1-2 hr forecasters, seems to deteriorate after that.

*Showed areas of convective instability, forecasters could compare to values determined through other methods  (e.g., SPC mesoanalysis)

GOES-R UAH-CI/Satcast:

*Yes/No instant solution not useful to forecasters.  Throughout the week the ‘yes’ caused many false alarms.  Temporal statistics or confidence interval may be more useful.

GOES-R pGLM:

*Good situational awareness tool. Provided 30 min + lead time to CG detections during the week.

*Would like to see an IC/CG ratio product.

NSSL 3D-VAR:

*Saw some correlation between updraft products and radar indicators of severe storms, or MRMS products

*FSI or 3D display would be useful for visualization of some of these products.

*Good situational awareness tool & for matching with warning polygons.

*Vorticity products seemed the most useful during the week.

-Kristin Kuhlman (Week 1 Coordinator)