Initial thoughts focus on the Tulsa (TSA) as well as the Springfield (SGF) and Little Rock (LZK) CWAs for convective initiation and storm maturity. Latest visible satellite imagery depicts congested cumulus field over southeast Oklahoma in response to continued low-level moisture transport and broad ascent with analyzed speed maximum across northeast Texas.

• Watching two potential scenarios unfold late this morning into the afternoon hours. First, monitoring broad cu field over the next several hours for initial convective development over eastern Oklahoma or western Arkansas as further low-level destabilization transpires and increasing deep layer shear arrives across the area. Model guidance suggests robust activity maturing over northeast OK into northwest Arkansas by early/mid afternoon, and therefore watching the TSA/LZK CWAs.

• To the west, a more conditional scenario exists along the cold front during the afternoon from Ardmore to Tulsa. Clearing has been noted ahead of this boundary from Graham, TX to Duncan, OK. Stratus deck to the northeast of the corridor appears to be thinning along I-44. Will have to also monitor this area later this afternoon across the TSA CWA for additional robust activity.

Main severe weather threats will likely be large hail up to golfball size and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph with well-organized multicell storms or a few supercells. Tornado threat appears low today with marginal low-level shear within the 0-1 km layer. However, any unresolved storm-scale boundaries from early morning convection within the warm sector of far eastern Oklahoma or western Arkansas may locally enhance isolated tornado threat.

Blair/Curren