CI is occurring within area of MLCAPE aoa 2000 J/kg along cold front extending from just east of KBVO to just north of KADM.  Cells initally were discreet but have been merging/growing into short multicell segments.  Additional isold convection is developing within broad warm sector over northeastern TX northeast into Pushmataha and LeFlore counties. Multicellular convection in this area looks enfeebled both visually and on radar.  Weak low and mid level SR flow indicates an evolution into a linear mode.  Given the amount of instability present along with mid tropospheric jet streak approaching area expect hail to 2 cm and wind gusts to 30 m/s.

Previous forecast had CI in a broad zone extending from near KJLN south to KMEZ.  Mesoanalysis showed a persistent area of lower CAPE in this region, owing to increased cloudiness and inhibited insolation.  Convection in this area appears shallow and unelectrified.

19Z run of the oun-wrf overconvected over southeastern OK and did not represent reality.  The 20z run, however, is sampling the CI and hopefully will provide a better solution.

Blair/Curran