Update to previous discussion…

Biggest change resides in surface wind field already responding to upstream pressure falls, with backing winds across a large portion of the domain. In contrast, deeper moisture discontinuity gradient resides through Sweetwater to Dryden as of early this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery depicts high-based cu developing within dry air in proximity of weak surface convergence. Low probability of this initial activity persisting due to concerns with very high T/Td spreads, via cold pool dominance. Outside of this area, skies continue to clear, with the main clearing line stretching from CDS to DRT. At the present time, moisture will need to stream NWward in order to establish severe weather threat. Short range forecast guidance continues to indicate a rapid transport of surface moisture between 00-03z and likewise shows a weak signal of convective initiation upon retreating dryline approximately 23-02z, generally east of Midland, TX. Forecast consensus considers this scenario low-confidence. However, if convection does develop in this region, environment supports robust development with conditions favorable for initial mode of supercellular activity. Models trend for upscale growth as low-level jet increases early this evening as convection translates east or northeastward over the remainder of MAF and SJT CWAs.

Blair/Curran/Billings/Taylor/Vincent