2011-05-10: Initial Area Forecast Discussion

  • Focus today through this evening over the MAF and SJT CWAs.
  • Ongoing convection initiated on lead wave this morning extending from the western Hill Country northeast into Oklahoma complicating matters.
  • Dryline initially from 30 W KCDS south to near KSWW then southwest to KFST will mix/advect west about 30-40 miles before stalling and retreating westward in advance of shortwave rounding the base of the longwave trough over the western CONUS.
  • OUN WRF indicates weak convection firing along and ahead of dryline/differential heating boundary from near KSNK south to near KJCT.
  • Initial activity should move northeast…high res models suggest activity will decay a bit after 23z.
  • Well defined wave on WV and short term model guidance expected to move out of northern Mexico after 00z.
  • Convergence along retreating dryline with MLCAPEs over 2500 J/kg.
  • RUC SBCAPE indicates significant increase in instability retreating west with the dryline after 00z.
  • Another round of CI expected to occur between 00z and 03z invof MAF.  Deep moisture over western Hill Country southeast should not mix much owing to cloud cover and attenuated insolation.
  • NAM and HRRR hints at robust convection between MAF and SJT around sunset.
  • Potential for supercellular structure with large hail (aoa baseballs) with second round.  Tornado and high wind threat somewhat less owing to stabilization of PBL.

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