I wanted to re-express my gratitude to you, Dr. Pam Heinselman and the remainder of the team for an amazing week with PAR! I am confident these experiments will prove the future of this technology will not only be revolutionary, but provide faster life saving information. Here are some additional thoughts:
1. The experiment was well coordinated with an exceptional set of enthusiastic graduate students to make this experience quite rewarding. Recommendation would be add one more full day of activities. This would allow for forecasters to become more familiar with the software, visit with SPC and Norman Forecast Office, and perhaps increase the potential to catch a severe weather episode (assuming another experiment during convective season).
2. Forecaster fatigue was discussed during the experiment since PAR offers a high frequency of updates. While we all strive to get as much lead time as possible, the human factor of mental breaks is a necessity. At the time of writing this, during VCP12, we have become accustomed to 4-5 minute update intervals. I would recommend an experiment of working a full event to test the “breaking point” when a forecaster would need to step away for that mental break.
3. While we had some software glitches during our visit, WDSS-II does offer a promise of where this display technology is going. I was delighted to see the enhancements from the original display and our current legacy D2D AWIPS software. Some integration of software technologies including GR2Analyst may provide additional flexibility with PAR.
4. I was pleased to see the emphasis on base data! While algorithms can aid in where forecasters should focus, this is usually “after the fact” and it does take away from the warn-on-forecast philosophy. In fact, with PAR, the concept of these algorithms will likely grow beyond TVS’s, MESO’s and Hail to the future “Warn On Forecast” as presented to us by David Stensrud (and Dustan Wheatley). This future research is rather exciting as meteorologists, Emergency Managers, media and decision makers can provide better prognosis in a rapidly changing environment. Now all we need is for computational Moore’s Law to catch up to provide this enhanced awareness.
Again, a phenomenal opportunity to work with everyone as I would be honored to continue where we left off back in April.
Brian Montgomery (Lead Forecaster, NWS Albany NY – 2010 Week 2 Evaluator)