For week 3, the participants are Steve Hodanish NWS PUB, Chris Wielke EC Edmonton, Kevin Brown NWS OUN, and John Billet NWS AKQ.

This is orientaton day.  The IOP begins at 5:30 pm Four projects are on tap for week 3 of the 2009 EWP.

Stabilized air over OK in the wake of last night’s MCS precludes the possibility of convection over TX .  Overnight, lee troughing in the high plains will help lift the front in central TX northward toward the Red River Valley.  An intensifying LLJ interacting with the front could create another MCS over OK after the planned IOP closes.  No IOP is likely for CASA, PAR or the OK LMA region.

Of the HSV and IAD LMA regions, only the IAD region has the potential for convection.  A weak midtropospheric shortwave trough is expected to cross the IAD region accompanied by weak instability and marginally strong enough convection to product lightning.  However the possibility for severe weather events is too low to consider an LMA IOP there.  The following graphics show the SPC general thunder risk (left, top) and the day 1 outlook (right, bottom).

The four EWP participants will go through a CASA and a PAR case.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 11 – 15 May 2009)