Today we anticipate operations in an SPC “slight risk” area in NE Colordado / SE Wyoming. The outlook reads:

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL…RUC DATA SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS WY AND NE CO WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 55 KT RANGE. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE…THE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT…THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S F AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

The IOP should begin at 6pm CDT, with PAR and CASA playback cases taking up the bulk of the afternoon.

Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)