… Not so good.

The system that we worked at the end of 14 May 2008 has translated eastward along the Gulf Coast States and is ongoing at the time of our 1 pm briefing. As the day goes on, the upper level trough that has been the “weather maker” the past day or so, will lift out to the NE. This takes the deeper (0-6km) shear with it, though the ongoing convection has developed an MCV and low-level shear should be good. The atmosphere is not terribly unstable though, so the existing and diminishing threat is most a tornado/wind threat for any convection that survives the day. There is a small spot in S TX that might allow us an IOP, and Dan M. also has suggested MN as an area with non-severe, but “popcorn” thunderstorms that would make for an interesting case to watch. This leaves us with nothing to work in the CASA / PAR domains.

We’ll do the PROBWARN archive case and perhaps another CASA / PAR case. If there is time and weather, we’ll try a realtime IOP later in the day.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 12-16 May)