Alrighty – this is our best chance for CASA this week (likely for PAR too), for severe weather. We will probably have convection in the CASA domain tomorrow, but I’d be surprised to have much in the severe category.

We have a front that has sagged into central OK and has recently initiated in Lincoln CO (~2145z). The line looks like it is trying to continue to initiate toward the SW in the CASA network. The boundary appears to be visible in the Ern part of the network.

CAPE values have been progged to be rather extreme (~4000 J/Kg), but the shear is not terribly favorable for significant tornado threat. However, with a boundary colocated with high CAPE, we might have some opportunity for tornadic storms. Nevertheless, shear is sufficient for supercells with large hail.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 12-16 May)