The supercell is recycling as MESH values rose and the reflectivity is rising as well as the velocity couplet.

The initial storm motion was a little fast so Cindy and Brian lowered it down to 20 kts. They’ll be keeping the hail prob of 100% initial and 90% in 30 min. Their storm motion uncertainty is 15deg and 10kts. They went with ellipses because the initial hail signature was circular. They’ll have to issue a new threat ID if the storm changed shapes.

So far the team has not been issuing TOR prob guidance. Greg’s starting up a new machine for TOR prob warnings.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)