Today features a closed low over Lubbock in the morning due to move east across southern OK in the afternoon. The surface cyclone is remaining surprisingly stacked up underneath the upper low with a dryline extending south from Altus to west of MWL while a stationary front extends northeast across OKC. This synoptic low is unique in that significant CAPE lies behind the dryline and under the upper low. Cold core convection is forming northwest of Abilene to CDS as a result. More convection is forming along the dryline and a tornado watch is out for areas east of it in an environment featuring significant shallow and deep shear. The hodographs show a little backing at midlevels due to cold air advection in advance of the midlevel cold core. Otherwise the environment is favorable for supercell tornadoes in SC OK and north TX.

We’re expecting the CASA network to be active with convection forming on the dryline in its southeastern sector and potential cold core convection coming in later. CASA and PAR operations are underway as a result.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)