Kevin M. blogging abouy Bryan and Crag’s PROBWARN experience. Quick synopsis – we are focused on the LBB area. Currently there is little/no TOR threat, so we’re warning on hail.
A few quick questions have already arisen: (since we are currently issuing low-prob warnings)
[Why] would we bother with low prob warnings in a higher end situation?
How best to approach a line of pulse severe? [Do we encompass the line and then issue individual smaller ellipsoids within the line? Decided against – too much work to keep track of all of those indivisual warnings.]
Apprehension to issue many small warnings instead or within the larger one. Mainly a workload issue. Also, these are low-prob warnings.
How do we split a warning into 2 warnings/ Keep and existing one and make a new one? Delete the existing and creat two new ones?
Quick little couplette appears SE of LBB. Do we consider an environmental change and start considering issuing a low-prob TOR threat with these storms?
0030z – issuing a ‘high’ prob warning anticipating a storm merger NNW of KLBB.
Workload becoming an issue – having trouble issuing new warnings and keeping track of exiting warnings in a timely manner. (May be due to storm situation, or software.)
After about 2 hours of running the PROBWARN, Bryan was getting pretty fatigued. Craig switches to PROBWARN issuer at 0046z.
Trying to issue simultaneous hail and wind warnings for the same storm is difficult. (Embedding one polygon within another gets somewhat problematic either w.r.t. drawing verticies, or simply having to redraw the warning twice which takes time).
GUI issue: I have seen multiple instances of people trying to draw polygons (non-ellipsoid) and they end up drawing a straight line.
~0110z, looking at storm to SE of KLBB. Good low-level convergence. TOR prob, non-zero – considering issuing a ‘pre-TOR warning’
Calling it a night for me. been an intersting and perhaps most involved PROBWARN exercise this spring. Should be a fun debrief tomorrow.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)