Brian wanted to add an interior, enhanced probability hail threat area but we’ll stick with simpler issues for now.

The storm is now more merged with the line to the east and is now nor N-S oriented.

There’s a storm to the east in the line with enhanced MESH. Bill’s wondering whether to add a new threat. For now he’ll want to keep it simple.

Updating western, pre GCK, storm which acquired a N-S dumbbell configuration. Do they go with a second threat for the south dumbbell? Bill sais the VIL’s continuing downward and they’re satisfied with the drop in probability trend from earlier. Brian thinks the inflow is weakening the storm and there’s contamination.

Greg asked if they feel confident the probability will be zero by the end of warning time? Bill sais no. Brian agrees. But now at 0048 UTC the MESH dropped further. So Brian’s going with 30 min validation time. Initial prob =70% lowering to 45%. The storm’s out of the previously created threat area and so they just saved at 0050 UTC.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)