Storms east of the GCK storm appear highly elevated according to Brian. He’s also thinking High downdraft CAPE and dewpoint depressions would depress the tornado threat.

Craig and Brian’s correlating VIL with the report. The VIL’s come down a bit and the latest report is 1″ . Cynthia’s worried the worst hail threat is now too far north of the threat area centroid. But Craig sais the tendency is for propagation to occur to the south.

Brian is also thinking the squall line segment to the south may eventually cutoff inflow to the storm.

Bill’s coming over to help Cynthia update the threat area. Bill’s interested in pulling the north extent of the threat area a little north and rotate the ellipse N-S and stretch it out. Oh, a new MESH product came in and they had to reposition the reshaped threat area to the east a bit.

Upon reconsidering after looping the MESH, they’ll consider a 50 min warning time. Motion uncertainty has been set to 10deg from 277, speed 10kts – uncertainty=5kts. Peak (trend) probability to be set to 55% in 30 min from 95%. So the trend is lower.

Done by 0027 UTC

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)