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We noticed several instances during the archive case this morning that the NTDA would sometimes go off in what we would consider clutter. This could potentially cause issues for any offices that have scripts to audio alert forecasters.
Ex of a TDA in clutter just to the southwest of the RDA
– Spaceman Spiff
The Day Convection RGB generally shows weak to moderate convection persisting over eastern, ID. There are occasional new updrafts that develop, but are short-lived. Combining the satellite trends with radar reflectivity generally depict that the severe threat has become isolated over eastern, ID.
NMDA did not pick up on the strong meso that moved through Fremont, ID and Gallatin, MT.
DMD did a better job of picking up on the cell.
MDA also picked up on it.
Charley
The Day Cloud Convection RGB still shows updrafts persisting over eastern, ID. However, the anvils of the existing convection are spreading over the area and potentially inhibiting afternoon surface heating. GLM data has also showed a diminishing trend in activity. Note, the GLM data did not load for the last few frames.
Strong updraft in western GGW showed the red colors going over to greens…likely the updraft getting into the warmer stratosphere.
Day cloud phase distinction loop over the area shows a continued strong updraft with gravity waves radiating outward.
Quite a bit of flashes in that cell in GGW.
Charley
Merged AzShear product showing the more organized cell. Velocity also increasing and can see the SRM on the base tilt below.
Decided to go ahead and upgrade the SPS to a SVR. PIHCHAT did get a report of “abundant amount of pea-sized hail”.
Switched over to SFX meso products and ran a loop…
Charley
The latest mesoanalysis shows values around 500 J/kg in portions of eastern, ID. However, the NUCAPS modified sounding suggests that this could actually be in excess of 1600 J/kg by sampling a point in southern Fremont county. Therefore, vigorous updrafts are expected to continue as these storms continue to track northeast this afternoon.
Coordinated with PIH on issuing for a cell that is intensifying. It will be only in my CWA briefly before heading over to RIW. Used wording for cell may intensify and penny-sized hail/50 mph winds.
Continuing the SVR downstream, as yet another strong core pops up. Colder cloud on IR and now prob severe is starting to jump up. Blue color showing ProbHail and ProbWind in the 30s.
Cell also showing more signs of organization in the SRM…better chances for hail.
Also getting a pickup from the DMD (latency issue still for NMDA).
Charley
IR imagery from GOES-West shows good updrafts continuing to radiated waves outward from warned storms in Fergus County.
…but ProbSevere continues to run cold. Unfortunately it will be very tough to verify my warning given the rural nature of the area.
MESH tracks followed nicely the cells in the warning…though primary thought was these were wind producers. Still seeing very bright TOE on GOES-West with these cells.
Charley
