Moving PAR wedge back southwest again by 10 degrees. There is a tradeoff between established storms moving northeast out of the area and up and coming cells moving in range from the southwest. Still no immediate hope for CASA.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
Storms continue racing northeast at nearly 70mph. Northern storm shows 60+ dBZ to nearly 40kft. No reports yet of hail…several of damaging winds.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
Storms moving 60-70mph thru outer edges of PAR network. Features getting interesting just beyond range (as seen on Vance 88D). CASA network remains untouched and it looks like things will really have to morph in order to make it in there by the end of this IOP.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
Forecasters are using prob warn polygon tool to highlight areas of concern and denoting threat. This is to simulate warning decisions.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
Storms have begun to fire over SW Oklahoma just inside the PAR network. Also have a fire going up in Gotebo which has resulted in the evauation of the entire town. We are currently running 2 PAR stations (Chris, Milovan and George, Jon). Will transistion one team to CASA later today if/when storms move into the CASA network. Right now we are estimating not before 5pm.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
HWT Participants finishing up PW exercise and on the verge of going live with PAR. George and Jon in the background, with Milovan and Chris in the foreground.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
Gridded Warning Archive case:
George reports that everything is under control. Apparently feels like he’s mastered the process enough to keep up. Jami Boettcher has thus chosen to sit with George and have him walk her thru the PW process.
Meanwhile back in the current time, new TOR covering western OK being considered by SPC.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
Skipping the formalities today as all are expecting something this evening with Mdt risk and PDS watch out for the NW. Apparently we’ll have several NWC employees available to provide ground truth over parts of KS/OK. Current storms are not in testbed range. Forecasters will go through the Prob Warn “exercise” given to all testbed participants. This should conclude by 3-3:30pm. By then we hope to have something in PAR range and hopefully some time after that, storms in CASA range. This is the last day for the Spring EWP.
LizQ
George and Jon report they are putting more thought into their probabilities tonight now that they have the software mastered. Jon defined a threat area which showed the threat ramping up from non-severe to severe during the valid time giving some forecasting aspects to the polygon.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)
A First for the Testbed: Smart-R radar data available now for storm in Southern Kansas/Northern OK and Greg has loaded this into radar sources for participants. Sector is not exactly what we need but they will see if they can optimize it.
Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 2-6 June)