As of 1900Z the CI tool shows some potential for convective development along the leading edge of CU approaching eastern Idaho.  Surface based heating during the course of the afternoon should aid in potential for storm development.

John Pendergrast

I found this overlay quite interesting to evaluate the ENI lightning trends v the radar low-level rotation, and the relationship therein.

MRMS 0-2 Azimuthal Shear
ENI Cell Polygons/Flashes

Rocky

Stills:

So far the increase on the boundary in NE SC has yielded a weak, small shower near Myrtle Beach.  Now probability up to 63% east of Charlotte.  The HRRR generates elevated convection in this region towards the evening.

-Holaday

The loop below depicts two ENI Cell Polygons completely overlapping  – which seems less than desirable. This overlap is depicted for a tornadic storm below and clearly the fetal polygon can be seen within the womb of the mother polygon (loop image underlay is the 0-2km Azimuthal Shear).

Also seen is the lightning ramp up in the pre-tornadic phase as the cell strengthened.

Rocky

In areas that are poorly sampled by radar data…such as mountainous and farther offshore marine locales..the ENI data should prove to be very valuable. The ENI data could be the confidence factor in issuing or not issuing a special marine warning on a storm that looks to be marginally strong due to poor radar sampling.

Pickles

The NUCAPS sounding has shown to be a realistic supplemental piece of environmental  data the last several days.

In comparison with the 12z sounding (fig 2)…the 17z NUCAPS (fig1) sounding did subtlely pick up on a weak inversion around 700 mb and 850 mb that was evident in the 12z sounding.  The NUCAPS sounding was more moist in the 400-500 mb level than the 12z sounding…which may have been due to the cirrus advecting in ahead of approaching convection. Differences between the 12z and NUCAPS soundings can give a rough and general idea of change in environment.

In comparison…with 17z SPC meso-analysis (fig3)…MU CAPE value were comparable.

So overall…I have been pleased with the utility of this sounding for re-assessing the environment each afternoon. It may be especially useful to sample a few NUCAPS points in an area of concern to get a consensus picture of the environment.

Fig 1 – 17z NUCAPS

Fig 2 -12z MHX

Fig 3

Pickles

The GOES-R LAP Parcel LI showed the destabilization trend through the eastern Carolinas ahead of convective initiation. The LI gradients compared well to the HRRR model – and both illustrated a sharp northern instability gradient limiting convection into Virginia. Good confidence builder and visualization tool.

Rocky

UAH CI probabilities have increased up to 70% along the cold front moving through extreme northeast South Carolina. UAH CI probs have been slowly increasing and the highest signals do correlate to where weak echos are now showing up on KLTX.

George

ENI cell/rate tracking (fig 1) was a better tool to identify and track stronger updrafts (fig 2)…within a QLCS moving to the NC coast. The lighting jump algorithm was difficult to follow one the event transitioned to a QLCS setup…because the algorithm grouped together severe cells and washed out the jump/severe signal (fig3).

Transient and weak tornadic spin-ups are noted on occasion along the NE coast with these QLCS’s in areas of interaction with discrete cells, to the north of rear inflow jets and kinks in the line.  Although both tools would likely not give much lead time on these transient spin-ups…the ENI should prove a more useful complement to radar data in these areas than the lightning jump in detecting the highest severe winds threat along the line and best potential for tornadogenesis. 

Fig 1

Fig 2

Fig3

Pickles