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Strong updraft in western GGW showed the red colors going over to greens…likely the updraft getting into the warmer stratosphere.
Day cloud phase distinction loop over the area shows a continued strong updraft with gravity waves radiating outward.
Quite a bit of flashes in that cell in GGW.
Charley
Merged AzShear product showing the more organized cell. Velocity also increasing and can see the SRM on the base tilt below.
Decided to go ahead and upgrade the SPS to a SVR. PIHCHAT did get a report of “abundant amount of pea-sized hail”.
Switched over to SFX meso products and ran a loop…
Charley
Coordinated with PIH on issuing for a cell that is intensifying. It will be only in my CWA briefly before heading over to RIW. Used wording for cell may intensify and penny-sized hail/50 mph winds.
Continuing the SVR downstream, as yet another strong core pops up. Colder cloud on IR and now prob severe is starting to jump up. Blue color showing ProbHail and ProbWind in the 30s.
Cell also showing more signs of organization in the SRM…better chances for hail.
Also getting a pickup from the DMD (latency issue still for NMDA).
Charley
IR imagery from GOES-West shows good updrafts continuing to radiated waves outward from warned storms in Fergus County.
…but ProbSevere continues to run cold. Unfortunately it will be very tough to verify my warning given the rural nature of the area.
MESH tracks followed nicely the cells in the warning…though primary thought was these were wind producers. Still seeing very bright TOE on GOES-West with these cells.
Charley
New cell popping up on edge of cloud shield. Got a head start on wind potential here with 50 mph SPS and pea sized hail.
Charley
Point in eastern TFX area shows higher CAPE on the latest RAP sounding from SPC, compared to the modified NUCAPS sounding. That area is popping now with new cells.
Charley
Had separate reports of 51 and 58 mph from earlier storms in the area. ProbSevere wasn’t very high in those cells, and neither was the lightning FED. Given a high DCAPE environment, decided to pull the trigger a little earlier on some of the stronger cells going up.
Charley
IR shows that cell as having the coldest cloud top. Donovan heights are around 20 kft for 50dbz to get 1″ hail. This cell is near it, but ProbSevere is not too excited about it just yet. MESH is under dime-sized and thus ProbHail is 7% now. Will monitor for further development. Issuing SPS for pea sized hail now.
Couplet still is broad on SRM, but reflectivity and 0-2km AzShear still showing signs of organization. With the answer key downstream, perhaps this would be a good time for a tornado warning.
As we go another 10 minutes downstream, the couplet continues to organize along with reflectivity signature. SRM (bottom right below) showing a small gate to gate feature.
Another 10 minutes downstream and we see stronger gate to gate. LLRT product shows that ramp up as well as the other merged AzShear products.
Charley
