new LAPS run…boundary issues continue

Here’s the max base reflectivity forecast for 22:15 Z..again , notice the east/west line of convection along the IA/MO border.

laps2

Here’s the 23Z forecast.  Notice how the western edge of that east/west line seems to interact with the “real” convection line to the west…taking on less of a linear character and looking more like the individual cells we have been seeing so far.  The eastern edge of that east/west line remains linear and lifts to the northeast.

laps3

 

Here’s the 23Z CAPE forecast,  Notice we continue to see a persistent east/west oriented waveform along our southern domain boundary.  Non-damped boundary waves are being turned into peaks of instability, leading to convective response in the model.

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Obviously, where a forecaster sees a radar feature in line with spurious model waves, they can discount it.  Of concern is when these features interact with/react to “actual” convective features the model is tracking.  This could lead to other spurious development or result in contaminating the character of any convection that wanders into the waveform.

db

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