While waiting for deep convection to fire, I decided to study each CTC detection < -10C/15min beginning with data from 1815 UTC, about when shallow convection was developing over the Nrn NM front range.

Between 1815 and 2045 UTC, I logged 8 CTC detections < -10C/15min. The first 4, between 1830 and 1915 UTC had no reflectivity > 35 dBZ develop within 90 minutes of the detection. The fifth detection at 1930 UTC over NW Colfax had a -18C/15min value and 5-10 minutes later showed composite reflectivity around 40 dBZ but never intensified further.  Still awaiting the 90 minute window for any reflectivity or MESH > 1″ to develop near the detection.

Caveats to any conclusion is that this mini-mini-study is soley dependent on the environment today over northeast NM. The CTC algorithm may work better in more favorable environments for deep convection.

SNELSON