A well developed supercell was moving ESE south of Albany.  The radar is not in a great location for this storm; while close, it is having to shoot through a very significant hail core.  This is creating a very large TBSS coincident with the location of the low level mesocyclone.  The NTDA is showing probabilities generally less than 60% (and in many cases, between 30 and 40%), but I expected to see higher numbers.  Suspect the lower probs are due to velocity issues related to the TBSS.  Subjectively, I would definitely have a Tornado Warning out for this storm.

– Rabbit