Noticed that CI-East product didn’t capture the initiation of a small cell NE of Bismarck. At 2015Z a small cell formed (fig 1).  The first time CI showed a probability of initiation occurred at the same time (fig 2).  By 2038Z the cell  developed a small 50dbz+ core. Doesn’t seem like CI-East was able to capture this until it happened. Also, was not overly cloud covered.

Fig 1: CI-East – 2015Z 1st indication in CI

Fig 2: 2015Z: 1st reflectivity appearing.

Fig 2: 2038Z: Small 50dbz core starting.

Forecasters: Cattywampus/CoonieCatEye