Current sfc conditions in the LUB CWA are generally characterized by temps in the M/U 70s and Tds U50s/L60s. GOES sounder information shows moisture advection to our west pooling along the Rockies in NM.

Recent satellite/radar trends show CI occurred just prior to 19Z in SE NM. CAPE values over CWA via GOES sounder are AOB 100 J/KG, but are expected to increase through the day.

Model guidance suggests that ML CAPE values will not be very impressive (max AOB 500 J/KG), with 0-6 km bulk shear AOB 30 kts through 00Z, but shear values are expected to increase after 00Z as wind field strengthens. MU CAPE values AOA 1000 J/KG especially over our southern zones appear likely…with MU CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG also possible. Overall, expect large hail and severe wind gusts to be main threat through the early afternoon. Tornado potential appears low, especially through the early afternoon.

ERTEL