Now that we have a verified severe storm in Midland’s area, let’s see how the lightning jump and probability severe algorithm worked.

At 1945Z, the algorithm showed a severe probability of 27%. The lightning jump was nothing to jump about.

With the next 0.5 deg scan at 1950Z, the probability skyrocketed to 83%.

At 2031Z, a 3 sigma lightning jump occurred. Severe probability was 93% at this time.

By 2049Z, the cell grew into this beast. Max reflectivity on the 0.5 deg tilt was 75.5 dBZ @ 16000 ft MSL/12230 ft AGL. A prominent TBSS had developed on the storm by 2040Z.

The LSR associated with this storm is shown here. Severe hail was observed beginning at 308 PM CDT/2008 GMT. In this case, the lightning jump occurred over 20 minutes after the storm began to produce severe hail. However, the probability severe did provide a lead time of about 20 minutes.

-V. Darkbloom