Here’s another example where a casual look at ProbTor might cause some confusion. Flow parallel to the boundary across the OKC metro eventually won out and the semi-discrete cells merged into a messy, slow-moving mess shortly before 22z. At 2148z, ProbTor peaked at 74% for the mass of convection just NE of OKC. However, KTLX velocity showed no immediate areas of concern. The answer to the high ProbTor was found in the 0-2km merged AzShear product. AzShear showed an enhanced area of shear to the NE of OKC near Spencer with generally convergent and broad flow. This is a good example of how ProbTor can be useful in operations: it quickly highlights areas for further investigation that can either be confirmed or thrown out with a very quick interrogation of the base data. In this case, ProbTor worked well, it was just biased by the abnormal/noisy AzShear data.

–Stanley Cupp

2148z KTLX base refl (top), base velocity (middle), and 0-2km AzShear (bottom) with 74% ProbTor contour overlaid on each