Mexico splitter – Prob Severe and GLM data

Loop showing the evolution of a strong cell west of Del Rio in Mexico. Prob Severe values were dominated by Prob Hail in this case. This hail threat makes sense given mesoanalysis and storm mode, supported by 12z Del Rio sounding. Peak values around 97% occurred before the storm split, but after peak dbz values observed on radar. This makes sense considering the beam height at this range (165 mi from MAF) was showing the mid-level core at 30kft MSL – hail would likely have needed time to fall out from this height. This case could be useful for offices with high radar beam heights distant from isolated thunderstorms. Prob Tor did nudge up around the time of the storm split enough to show the ‘double contour’, however V data at low levels was not present.

 

Same storm now with GLM Event Density. This data showed a lightning decrease around the time that the storm split. Following the split, almost 0 lightning was observed in the southern cell, while the left split saw a spike in event density. The left split reinvigorated shortly after the split while the right mover weakened.

 

This is the same loop with radar overlaid that shows the storm split and this time flash extent density. Almost 0 lightning data seen in the south cell.