All EWP Blog posts describe work done in an experimental setting (not official operations) and may include fictitious events and/or activities.

First Warning in San Angelo CWA

Posted in Lightning Jump Algorithm, ProbSevere on April 20, 2016 by Kristin Calhoun.

A thunderstorm developed along a residual outflow boundary/stationary front southwest of San Angelo Wednesday afternoon. The forecaster group issued an experimental severe thunderstorm warning based on lightning jump data, ProbSevere output, and all radar tilts examination. Figure 1 below shows a loop of 0.5 degree KSJT reflectivity and ProbSevere contours. ProbSevere first exceeded 50% at 1952 UTC, 60% at 2002 UTC, and 80% at 2012 UTC. The experimental data along with all radar tilts analysis helped forecasters increase lead-time and confidence in issuing a severe thunderstorm warning. After the warning was issued the storm again experienced a lightning jump and ProbSevere values maxed at 100%, with MRMS MESH over 3.00″.

KSJT 0.5 degree reflectivity, NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere contours and experimental severe thunderstorm warning polygons valid 1948 - 2016 UTC 20 April 2016. — KSJT 0.5 degree reflectivity, NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere contours and experimental severe thunderstorm warning polygons valid 1948 – 2016 UTC 20 April 2016.

-Sieglaff