Scattered showers and storms finally formed in Northeastern MN late this afternoon. However, with just marginal instability storms have remained below severe limits despite excellent deep layer shear in the 40-50 kt range. As mentioned in a previous post CI indicated a line/cluster of showers and storms was likely to develop. As storms develop the CIMSS Prob severe model showed most storms having only a small chance of being severe, which has worked out great today (see images below for radar/prob svr at around 2330Z and CI near 22Z).

-Wacha