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When will the CAP break? NUCAPS pass helps.

Posted in General on June 3, 2015 by Kristin Calhoun.

Have been waiting for deep convection to start. Denver’s 18z special sounding (Fig 1) showed a fairly robust cap around 700mb so just waiting for this to erode. The NUCAPS sounding from ~20Z (Fig 2) show the lower levels not quite fully mixed but becoming closer. Modified CAPE using the Denver metar shows >2000 J/kg. This helped build some confidence that we will see deep convection but just have to wait on a delayed start.

Fig 1: 18z Special Sounding from KDNR

Fig 2: NUCAPS sounding. Eroding Cap.

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When will the CAP break? NUCAPS pass helps.