I noticed a very dramatic increase in lightning activity and prob severe as a storm approached the Jacksonville FA (from Lanier County), so I decided to go ahead and pull the trigger on a severe thunderstorm warning. The prob severe didn’t quite make it to the 80% threshold (only 78%), but since it accompanied the ‘lightning jump’, my confidence was higher that it was intensifying and was capable of producing severe weather. There was also an overshooting top associated with this storm as seen by the overshooting top detection.

The warning has not verified yet. (Click image to see animation)

-Helen Hunt