I decided to take a look at the CIMSS products to see how the environment was evolving through the afternoon. I noticed that the CIMSS CAPE products appeared cellular in nature in the southern portion of the Jacksonville FA and smoother further north at 21Z and 22Z. Initially, I thought that the smoother part was more accurate and that the cellular values further south were some sort of noise associated with the satellite. However, when I compared the CAPE values from the SPC meso-analysis to the CIMSS CAPE, I realized that the cellular values were actually closer to the SPC values (near 1500 J/kg) and were more representative of the actual environment. This is likely due to the cloud cover (seen in IR imagery) that is over the northern part of the FA. The GFS is probably being used in this area, so the data appears smoother and is actually less representative of the actual environment. Further south where there’s less clouds, we’re probably seeing more of the satellite data which may be why it’s more cellular, but more representative.

21Z

22Z

-Helen Hunt